Thursday, October 29, 2009

The Sports Guy's NBA Preview

First, let me get this out of the way--I like Bill Simmons. I think he's a good writer, he's funny and he knows his stuff. And even though he now lives in LA, he remains a Boston homer through-and-through, so he's loyal and I respect that. Of course, since he's a Celtics fan, he understandably HATES the Lakers which consequently colors his writing. I don't think that's a bad thing. I just vehemently disagree with him on certain things. However, his recent 2009 NBA preview had several salient points. I've enclosed a few of them below with my own comments in italics. It's not actually a discussion as the self-glossed Sports Guy has no chance to respond, but I think it will be interesting nonetheless. Enjoy.

Rasheed Wallace

Am I excited about Sheed turning Boston into the biggest ref-baiting, trash-talking, fan-unfriendly, swaggeracious (I just made up that word) NBA team since the 1992 Knicks? Actually, not really. If you are not a Celtics fan, instinctively, you will dislike the 2009-10 Celtics. Couldn't agree more. Sheed is going to exacerbate every already-annoying quality they had. There will not be a more unpopular opponent in the league. You will see a steady stream of violent chest bumps, screams to the ceiling, angry nodding, eye bulging, intimidating looks, hard fouls, low-scoring games and everything else you'd ever hate about a basketball team. They will feed off your negative energy, live for it, seek it, thrive on it. That's how the season will go.

Is this a good thing? Yes and no. If it's a 67-win team, then, yes. I will put up with it. (And probably enjoy it. It's always fun to root for an Eff You team that's pulling off the Eff You. Don't let anyone tell you differently.) But if it's a 54-win team that looks old on back-to-backs, seems like more sizzle than steak, can't figure out its roles, and spends too much time in petty little battles with opponents and refs (and by the way, Doc Rivers was the No. 1 ref-baiting coach in the league last season), then, no, it's probably not a good thing. So we will see. Personally, I think they'll face the Lakers in the Finals.

(Just because you asked: Does it feel strange to root for someone who once uttered the words, "As long as somebody CTC, at the end of the day I'm with them. For all you that don't know what CTC means, that's 'Cut The Check.'" Yes. Yes it does. Especially since he might be washed up. And we DID cut the check. For three freaking years.)

(Deep sigh.)

(It's too early to worry about this. Happy thoughts. Happy thoughts. Happy thoughts. Happy thoughts.)

Kevin McHale

I was always bitter that McHale decided to become a crummy general manager instead of the greatest NBA color guy ever. Maybe you SHOULD have traded Gugliotta to the Lakers after all. This year, the bitterness washed away: McHale joined TNT and NBA TV as a studio guy. Better late than never. I'm giddy.

(Speaking of McHale, do you know that the Clippers own Minnesota's unprotected 2011 No. 1 pick thanks to Kevin McHale's Sam Cassell/Marko Jaric swap? It's true. Every T-Wolves fan who didn't know this is making the Betty Draper "I Just Opened the Dick Whitman Box" face. But it's true. Yet another reason why LeBron should sign with the Clips in nine months.)

Shaquille O'Neal

Red flag No. 1: He's 835 pounds. Red flag No. 2: He has never successfully pulled off the whole "sidekick" thing; even to the bitter end, he was playing the big brother/little brother routine with Dwyane Wade. Red flag No. 3: He's splitting time with Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who might be a better fit for this particular team because of his outside shooting. Red flag No. 4: He has never, ever, ever, not in his entire life, played for a coach as offensively challenged as Mike Brown. Red flag No. 5: He doesn't have the luxury of Phoenix's training staff anymore. Red flag No. 6: He's so fat that it's like looking at one of those TVs where the HD is screwed up so it makes everyone seem wider. Red flag No. 7: The Suns traded him for two guys who they immediately bought out for a combined $14 million. Red flag No. 8: The Cavs are better off if he's playing 15-20 minutes a game and that's it. Red flag No. 9: He's so fat that it's possible Delonte West was packing three guns because he got confused and thought Shaq wanted to eat him. Red flag No. 10: He's awfully close to some records, which will make it awkward if Cleveland tries to reduce his playing time.

That's 10 red flags. Ten. (To be fair, Shaq doesn't look THAT fat. He just looks a little, um, heavy. Maybe it's the uniform that makes him look doughy for some reason. I just know that, when I saw the cover of Sports Illustrated this week, I couldn't figure out why Aretha Franklin shaved her head. Then I realized it was Shaq.) And that's before we get into the whole, "Shaq seems like a great guy, but if he's a great guy, then why did he leave four teams on really bad terms" thing. Final tally: The Lakers traded an aging, overpaid, under-motivated Shaquille O'Neal for Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol and Jordan Farmar. Advantage, Lakers. Be prepared for him to do more harm than good in Cleveland. One difference: If he crosses LeBron like he crossed Nash, he'll be getting the Braylon Edwards 48-hour ticket out of town.

Kevin Garnett

Remember in "Shawshank," when Red was describing how Andy burrowed through the walls thanks to "pressure over time." The same goes for NBA players and knees. Pressure over time. You pressure your knees over time, and eventually, they don't work as well. For big guys, they lose three things once their knees start going: explosiveness (self-explanatory), quick hops (the ability to quickly jump up for a rebound or a block without setting their legs and bending their knees first) and auto-start (the ability to quickly start moving from a standing position).

Now, this isn't a career-ender. You can plod along for years afterward at 70-75 percent effectiveness. Kareem did it. Ewing did it. Shaq just did it the past four years. Hell, C-Webb limped around for two quality Kings teams in 2003 and 2004. It can be done. Just know that, once someone battles a severe knee issue with 1100 to 1200 games on the odometer, those three things (mentioned above) never really come back. It's almost like plastic surgery. Mess with your face once … maybe it looks the same. Go back again … now you're pushing it. Go a third time … now you're going to look like Cat Woman. And there's no going back. So if you're expecting KG to slap 24/13s and dominate games defensively, think again. I see him more like an aging middle linebacker -- think Ray Lewis -- who can still make big plays and knows where to be at all times, and yet, you're not crazy about seeing him drop into coverage to cover Knowshon Moreno one on one. Either way, it will be fascinating.

One silver lining for Celts fans: The Celtics can make the Finals with Garnett at 65-70 percent efficiency. Why? Because it's the deepest of the three Garnett/Celtics teams, and because the rest of the conference is that weak. That's absolutely true. For all the talk about the Big 3 in the East, 50 wins in the West doesn't even guarantee you a playoff spot anymore. Anything he gives them beyond a 14/7 and good defense is a bonus. A little frightening to say about someone in Year 1 of a three-year, $53 million extension. But true.

Andrew Bynum

I should be offended at the following, but it's just too frickin' funny. And it ALMOST has a ring of truth about it.

I am 65 percent certain that this exact conversation happened within the past four weeks.

(Kobe enters Phil Jackson's office. Brian Shaw is sitting to Phil's right.)

Phil: Kobe, thanks for stopping by.

Kobe: No problem. I got five minutes. Artest is taking me to Hollywood Boulevard; he wants to introduce me to the guys dressed up like Superman and Batman. He thinks they're the actual superheroes. I haven't had the heart to tell him they're homeless guys.

Phil: Well, don't tell him differently. Let him think that.

Kobe: I will.

Phil: Look, I really want to get Bynum more involved in our offense in November and December. It's a good thing, Kobe. Just trust me. We run everything through him for 42 minutes. You take over for the last six.

Kobe: C'mon, we did this last season. Then he got hurt, I took over and our team took off. Why go through the charade again?

Phil: Because you're still two titles behind MJ?

Kobe: That's your big motivational move with me now, huh?

Phil: Hey, he told me himself -- "Tell Kobe to call me when he gets to six."

Kobe (eyes narrowing): He said that?

Phil: Yup. He said he can't even take you seriously until you win two more.

Kobe: Really?

Phil: Yup. That's why we need Bynum right now. The Pechonkamappadosa tribe has a phrase for this called, "Kakaboomaka." It means, "To share the credit without giving up credit with those who matter." I just want to build his confidence up and save your legs. We put a ton of miles on those babies these past two years -- 208 games. This is good for you.

Kobe: Lemme think about it.

(Kobe leaves. Phil turns to Shaw.)

Phil: This is too easy.

The Lakers

Raise your hand if you're excited about Khlomar! (Happily raising hand.) Look, I don't have much ammo for the teams I hate right now. The Colts have been ruined for me; Peyton Manning has become such a monolith of clutchness that I can't even toss grenades at him; if anything, I respect the hell out of him. The Yankees are pulling for each other, slamming shaving pies into faces and looking unbeatable; even worse, it's the kind of likable, quirky (albeit, expensive) team that the Red Sox once had before they dumped their front office, ignored human intuition, decided that "business-like" was better than "personable," and used complicated statistical engines to assemble their 2009 roster. (Wait, we didn't do that? It just seemed like it. Sorry.) So really, hating the hateable Lakers is all I have left. Gotta love that honesty.

And you know what else? It's fun to have teams that you hate. Amen--which means "I agree." I hate Sasha Vujacic's hair. Old or new cut? I hate the fact women like Luke Walton. They do, you know. I hate their uniforms. Whaaa? Watch it, Leprechaun Boy. I hate when Pau Gasol gets excited and does that thing where he barks with his hands at his sides as his ugly beard drips sweat over everyone. I hate not being able to hate Derek Fisher. You know that's right! I love being able to hate Kobe, who has brought me more hateable joy than anyone else this decade. (But damn, is that guy good. I do respect him.) And I wish we played D like the Celtics. There, I said something nice too. I hate Laker fans who show up for Clipper games and only start making noise when the Lakers go up double-digits. I hate the fact D.J. Mbenga has a publicist. I could go on and on.

I would hope that Lakers fans are OK with this. I would hope they hate the Celtics just as much, for reasons that are just as personal to them. Oh, we do. That's what makes the rivalry great -- we hate them, they hate us, and somehow, the hatred is deepening, in a good way. After all, it's just sports. I don't REALLY hate anyone. (Well, except for Vujacic. If he was crossing the street on a crosswalk, I'd like to think that I wouldn't run him over, but I would definitely glance around to see how many people were looking before I made a final decision.) So that's what makes me so happy that the Lakers added not just the black sheep Kardashian sister, but …

Ron Artest

… the looniest player in the history of the league! As they're defending a title! And even better, every Laker fan thinks he's an upgrade over Trevor Ariza! Really? That's what you think? You really think that? Bill, we'll just have to agree to disagree on this. Are you perhaps just worried that we now have someone capable of guarding Pierce or might just be as dirty--I mean tough--as your Celtics. It remains to be seen how it will all shake out, but Ron-Ron potentially gives the Lakers a two-way weapon Ariza just isn't right now. TA is younger and quicker, but not remotely as strong or as polished of an offensive player. Crap, I wish we had 'em both. Any chance we could trade Sasha to Houston to get Ariza back?


Tim Duncan

Healthy, happy, rested, in shape. He's already the greatest power forward ever. He already has four rings. But you know what he doesn't have? When he's 60 years old, or 70, or 75, or whatever, and one of his grandkids says, "Grandpa, what was the best team you ever played on?" … he doesn't have an answer. He never played for a kick-ass, take-no-prisoners, dominant team. Kareem had the '87 Lakers and '71 Bucks. Magic had the '87 Lakers. Wilt had the '67 Sixers and '72 Lakers. Bird had the '86 Celtics. Shaq and Kobe had the '01 Lakers (playoff edition). West had the '72 Lakers. Oscar had the '71 Bucks. Moses had the '83 Sixers. Duncan has nothing. He had his shot with Robinson. NOBODY could match up with those two when they were clicking. But you saw what happened when they ran into the '01 Lakers playoff buzzsaw--swept with two 30+ point losses to finish the series.

Now, you could argue that the league is too diluted at this point. (And maybe it is. The '01 Lakers were our last kick-ass team.) Or, you could argue that Duncan never had a season in which everything fell into place. In my basketball book (coming Tuesday!!!), I wrote a chapter about the specific set of dynamics that separate championship teams from memorable championship teams. It's complicated and I won't spoil it here. Just know the 2009-10 Spurs qualify for "memorable" status. They have the talent, they have the "Eff You" edge (a term I explain in the book), and they have something that Gregg Popovich likes to call "appropriate fear." Here's how he explained that phrase in 2005:

It gets more difficult after a win to come back and understand how that subconscious sort of complacency can set in. You can't allow that to happen. You have to keep an appropriate fear of your opponent so that complacency will dissipate as soon as possible.

This particular Spurs team has the right level of appropriate fear: fear of aging and complacency coupled with an appreciation for how fast things can fall apart (thanks to Manu's ankle the past two seasons), and beyond that, the reality that their best player might only have one great season left in him. I am a Spurs junkie. I love reading about them. I love the way they put their rosters together and value chemistry so deeply. I love the way they interact during games (as I've written many times). I just get a kick out of them. And the truth is, this might be their last chance for a dominant season with Tim Duncan leading the way. They've added some nice pieces, but I think if everyone's healthy, they just don't have enough to keep up with LA. Who guards Pau--Duncan? So, you leave the 6-9 McDyess on Bynum? Good luck. Pick your poison. And I didn't even mention what Kobe's going to do without former nemesis Bowen in the Spurs mix. I say bring it on.

I think it happens. If only because great basketball players have a habit of somehow finding that one great team. They are my pick to win in 2010. Convincingly. Incidentally, Bill picked the Cavs to win last year. I'm sticking with my pick: Lakers over Celtics in six.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

2009-2010 NBA Predictions

I'm usually not one to make bold predictions about upcoming NBA seasons--unlike Kevin Garnett. But I am willing to go out on a limb for a few things this year. Here are my Top Ten Predictions for the 2009-2010 NBA season:

10) Despite spending the vast majority of his minutes on the low block and lining up next to the 6-9 McDyess, Tim Duncan will somehow be passed off as a "power forward" by the San Antonio Spurs. In recent years, the Spurs have become notorious for this re-classification of their prototypical center--usually in an effort to secure a starting All-Star bid for Duncan. Look, dude's a center. Always has been, always will be. The biggest reason it worked with Robinson is that the Admiral was more small forward (skill-set-wise) than center. Duncan was a center in college, coming out of college, and plays the five in the Association. Stop calling him a four.

9) Kurt Rambis will regret taking the T-Wolves job. LA vs. Minnesota: winning vs. not, warm weather vs. brutal winters, part of a staff vs. scapegoat. Look, dude was never promised Jackson's seat when the Zen Master finally retires, but why not ride the wave as long as you can? Besides...

8) At least 4 coaching jobs will open up this year. Just to take a stab in the dark--Golden State, Clippers, Indiana, and New Orleans.

7) Shaq will gloss himself the "Big (insert Cleveland metaphor here)". Oh, and he'll make a few more comments on how LBJ is the greatest player he ever played with.

6) Vince Carter and Dwight Howard will have a feud. Howard was already not getting the ball enough. Vinsanity replacing Hedo is NOT going to help that.

5) Rasheed will get crap-load of techs--but also will fit in nicely with the Celtics. He's definitely not the force he was in Portland--or even Detroit a few years back--but his turnaround J is still unblockable. Call him the next James "Buddha" Edwards.

4) Andrew Bynum will stay healthy and make the All-Star team. The last two years have shown us HUGE upside. This is the year the kid stays away from the injury bug and gets his first All-Star nod. ***No Yao makes this a virtual lock***

3) Ron Artest will fit in and be a good soldier—for this year at least. It says a lot that Artest took less than the going rate to come to LA for a chance to win, but what's even more telling is Ron-Ron's deference to Kobe at every turn, even going so far as to wear a black Kobe (Black Mamba) jersey at a recent promotional appearance in San Diego. Having Odom back in the fold will also help as the two are childhood friends. But most importantly, Artest respects Phil Jackson and has said repeatedly he'll do whatever he's asked. Artest will get his touches in spots--especially whenever he's in and Kobe's not--and will give the Lakers their first true tough guy since Rambis. Ultimately, Artest will continue to be a double threat and only make the Lakers stronger which is why...

2) Someone other than Kobe will win the MVP this year. Probably LeBron as he will only continue to get better and is #1A at worst in the league already. His supporting cast is not even in the same league as Bryant's--which should sway voters. Wade is the dark horse, but he'll have to have ungodly numbers and get the Heat solidly into the 4 spot in the East with 50+ wins to do it. Kobe will just have to settle again for Finals MVP because...

1) After a grueling season in which they WON'T win 70 games, the Los Angeles Lakers will defeat the Boston Celtics in 6 games. Assuming reasonably full health on both sides, the Lakers will avenge their 2008 embarrassment and finally gain the measure of respect they're missing for not having to face the injury-ravaged C's in '09. The Celtics have upgraded since '08 as well with the addition of Wallace and development of Rondo and (to a much lesser degree) Davis, but Artest gives the Lakers someone to legitimately match-up with Pierce (something they absolutely did not have last time around) and the presence of Bynum--and continued improvement of Gasol--even out the frontcourts. All things being relatively equal, Kobe's quest to win one-for-the-thumb (and eventually pass Jordan's six) will push them over the edge.

So sound off if you will. I'm no prognosticator, but at least I'm not guaranteeing two championships.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Thank you, 2009 Giants

I've always considered myself to be an intelligent fan. One who understands just how hard it is to win a championship—and how much harder it is to win it again. I believe this understanding is due in large part to the fact that I chose my teams at an early age and have never remotely considered switching allegiances. I'm a person whose opinion of “bandwagon” fans has ranged from curiosity to outright vehemence. Back in the day, I even co-wrote a song called “Pseudofans” that was meant to include a Jim Carrey sample proclaiming said fans were “pathetic losers.”

But for me, the biggest reason to stay loyal to your teams is because of the journey. If one switches their rooting interests around based on who's good at that particular moment, they miss the joy of seeing the maturation of their team from also-rans to champions. Victory after repeated defeat is magnified ten-fold. It is for this reason that this post is dedicated to the 2009 San Francisco Giants. They won't win the World Series this year—and they might not ever win it. But they've given me something great nonetheless. Hope. Hope that someday my Giants will rise up and break the 3rd longest (and least recognized) drought in World Series history. The 2002 team almost made up for the 1989 team's humiliation, and perhaps someday another team will come along to erase both of their failures. Until that time, I will enjoy the growth of the San Francisco Giants. I will celebrate them not for their mediocrity; a championship is still the only thing that counts. But I will carefully track their progress and applaud excellence when I see it.

To that end: Thank you, Dave Righetti, for all the work you've done with the pitching staff. The team jumped from 17th to 2nd in ERA, led all of MLB in Shut-Outs with 18 (5 more than the next team) and Complete Games with 11. They also gave up 90 less runs in '09 versus '08. The team had increase in wins of 16, but only managed to score 17 more runs. Thank you, staff, for carrying the team.

Individual Thanks to:

Tim Lincecum—in his follow-up to last year's Cy Young winning campaign, he arguably had a better year, again leading the league in strikeouts and tying with teammate Matt Cain for the league lead in CG (4).

Speaking of Cain, the game's active leader in lowest run support finally had some things fall his way as he made the All-Star team for the first time and combined with Lincecum to form one of the best pitching duos in the game.

Randy Johnson—his 2009 season was looked upon by many as a last-ditch attempt to reach 300 wins. In actuality, Johnson was very competitive—amassing 8 wins before the All-Star break and the injury that cut deeply into his season. But even while hurt, Johnson took on a mentor role for the young pitching staff and did much to dispel the notion that he was nothing more than a self-serving a-hole.

Jonathan Sanchez—one of Johnson's pet projects started slow, but quickly developed into yet another fine young Giants pitcher. But for me, he'll always be best known for throwing the first Giants no-no in a generation during the one game this year I got to watch with my dad and my brother (cue Field of Dreams music now).

Barry Zito—his second half started to remind us that he actually was a great pitcher at one time. Still relatively young, Zito might actually start to make his contract look a little less absurd.

Brian Wilson—he won't make anyone forget Robb Nen with 7 blown saves, but the 38 he cashed in were impressive nonetheless.

Brad Penny—released by Boston after the trade deadline, Penny signed with Giants and paid immediate dividends. In 6 games, he was 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and the only reason that ERA was so high was because in that one loss, Penny gave up 7 ER in 2-2/3 innings. In short, he was a huge pickup for the Giants' playoff push.

Joe Martinez, Madison Bumgarner, and Ryan Sadowski—the Giants pitching staff looks to be getting only stronger.

On the offensive side:

Thanks to Eugenio Velez—in August, he gave the Giants a sparkplug at the top of the order and played stellar defense. It's no coincidence that when his average dropped 33 points for the month of September, the Giants' offense sputtered and the losses came a little more frequently.

Aaron Rowand—he played every game like it was his last and continues to be a great leader in the clubhouse.

Bengie Molina—not your proto-typical clean-up hitter, but a good RBI man nonetheless.

Freddy Sanchez—the trade deadline deal paid immediate dividends, but a nagging injury prevented the former All-Star from having the desired impact.

Juan Uribe—despite being a part-time player, Uribe hit 16 homeruns (one of only 4 Giants in double digits). He played so well, Bochy was forced to find room for him. Unfortunately, Ryan Garko's lack of production made that decision all too easy.

Pablo “Kung Fu Panda” Sandoval—in only his first full season, Pandoval was 2nd in the league in BA (.330) with 25 HR and 90 RBI. Just think what he'll do when he learns how to hit (he only walked 52 times). But what's most impressive is that Panda has arguably already become the most beloved Giant since Mays. As great as Bonds was (and we did see him do some frickin' ridiculous things), he was never embraced—mostly by his own doing—like Sandoval has been. Panda masks are everywhere in the City, and if he continues to develop, MLB would be very foolish indeed not to cash in on the incredible good will this ambidextrous, overweight, free-swinging anomaly seems to effortlessly generate.


Management:

Brian Sabean—the architect of this team built a formidable pitching staff from top to bottom. For the first time in recent memory, the Giants' pitching could be considered the best in the league—and for a while they actually were. The onus is on him now to bring in the bats to complement what's already there without disrupting team chemistry. Not an easy task for sure, but the man who once traded Matt Williams for Jeff Kent and other crucial pieces of the '97 playoff run seems up to the task.

Bruce Bochy—I was not a fan of the hire initially, but this year the biggest (literally, not figuratively) head in the game proved to contain some shrewd managerial skills. Now, if he can just have some more bats to plug into the order...

Kruk and Kuip:

I love these guys and miss them calling the game. Both incredibly knowledgable and personable, each has their own quirks. Krukow is always talking to the “kids at home” to point out how to do something and has the goofiest laugh I've ever heard. Kuiper is usually the straight man, but his homerun call (“He hits it high. He hit it deep. It is OUTTA HERE!!!”) always gives me chills. But most impressively, both Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper walk the fine line between blatant homerism and myopian foolishness. No one has any doubt who these guys are rooting for as they're calling the game, but neither hesitates in the slightest to give either praise or criticism to any player, be he Giant or not.

Final Word:

The Winter Meetings are coming. Like many of my fellow Giants fans, I appreciate all the hard work the team has done to this point. But now the real work begins. Expectations will only be higher for 2010.