The Sports Guy's NBA Preview

First, let me get this out of the way--I like Bill Simmons. I think he's a good writer, he's funny and he knows his stuff. And even though he now lives in LA, he remains a Boston homer through-and-through, so he's loyal and I respect that. Of course, since he's a Celtics fan, he understandably HATES the Lakers which consequently colors his writing. I don't think that's a bad thing. I just vehemently disagree with him on certain things. However, his recent 2009 NBA preview had several salient points. I've enclosed a few of them below with my own comments in italics. It's not actually a discussion as the self-glossed Sports Guy has no chance to respond, but I think it will be interesting nonetheless. Enjoy.

Rasheed Wallace

Am I excited about Sheed turning Boston into the biggest ref-baiting, trash-talking, fan-unfriendly, swaggeracious (I just made up that word) NBA team since the 1992 Knicks? Actually, not really. If you are not a Celtics fan, instinctively, you will dislike the 2009-10 Celtics. Couldn't agree more. Sheed is going to exacerbate every already-annoying quality they had. There will not be a more unpopular opponent in the league. You will see a steady stream of violent chest bumps, screams to the ceiling, angry nodding, eye bulging, intimidating looks, hard fouls, low-scoring games and everything else you'd ever hate about a basketball team. They will feed off your negative energy, live for it, seek it, thrive on it. That's how the season will go.

Is this a good thing? Yes and no. If it's a 67-win team, then, yes. I will put up with it. (And probably enjoy it. It's always fun to root for an Eff You team that's pulling off the Eff You. Don't let anyone tell you differently.) But if it's a 54-win team that looks old on back-to-backs, seems like more sizzle than steak, can't figure out its roles, and spends too much time in petty little battles with opponents and refs (and by the way, Doc Rivers was the No. 1 ref-baiting coach in the league last season), then, no, it's probably not a good thing. So we will see. Personally, I think they'll face the Lakers in the Finals.

(Just because you asked: Does it feel strange to root for someone who once uttered the words, "As long as somebody CTC, at the end of the day I'm with them. For all you that don't know what CTC means, that's 'Cut The Check.'" Yes. Yes it does. Especially since he might be washed up. And we DID cut the check. For three freaking years.)

(Deep sigh.)

(It's too early to worry about this. Happy thoughts. Happy thoughts. Happy thoughts. Happy thoughts.)

Kevin McHale

I was always bitter that McHale decided to become a crummy general manager instead of the greatest NBA color guy ever. Maybe you SHOULD have traded Gugliotta to the Lakers after all. This year, the bitterness washed away: McHale joined TNT and NBA TV as a studio guy. Better late than never. I'm giddy.

(Speaking of McHale, do you know that the Clippers own Minnesota's unprotected 2011 No. 1 pick thanks to Kevin McHale's Sam Cassell/Marko Jaric swap? It's true. Every T-Wolves fan who didn't know this is making the Betty Draper "I Just Opened the Dick Whitman Box" face. But it's true. Yet another reason why LeBron should sign with the Clips in nine months.)

Shaquille O'Neal

Red flag No. 1: He's 835 pounds. Red flag No. 2: He has never successfully pulled off the whole "sidekick" thing; even to the bitter end, he was playing the big brother/little brother routine with Dwyane Wade. Red flag No. 3: He's splitting time with Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who might be a better fit for this particular team because of his outside shooting. Red flag No. 4: He has never, ever, ever, not in his entire life, played for a coach as offensively challenged as Mike Brown. Red flag No. 5: He doesn't have the luxury of Phoenix's training staff anymore. Red flag No. 6: He's so fat that it's like looking at one of those TVs where the HD is screwed up so it makes everyone seem wider. Red flag No. 7: The Suns traded him for two guys who they immediately bought out for a combined $14 million. Red flag No. 8: The Cavs are better off if he's playing 15-20 minutes a game and that's it. Red flag No. 9: He's so fat that it's possible Delonte West was packing three guns because he got confused and thought Shaq wanted to eat him. Red flag No. 10: He's awfully close to some records, which will make it awkward if Cleveland tries to reduce his playing time.

That's 10 red flags. Ten. (To be fair, Shaq doesn't look THAT fat. He just looks a little, um, heavy. Maybe it's the uniform that makes him look doughy for some reason. I just know that, when I saw the cover of Sports Illustrated this week, I couldn't figure out why Aretha Franklin shaved her head. Then I realized it was Shaq.) And that's before we get into the whole, "Shaq seems like a great guy, but if he's a great guy, then why did he leave four teams on really bad terms" thing. Final tally: The Lakers traded an aging, overpaid, under-motivated Shaquille O'Neal for Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol and Jordan Farmar. Advantage, Lakers. Be prepared for him to do more harm than good in Cleveland. One difference: If he crosses LeBron like he crossed Nash, he'll be getting the Braylon Edwards 48-hour ticket out of town.

Kevin Garnett

Remember in "Shawshank," when Red was describing how Andy burrowed through the walls thanks to "pressure over time." The same goes for NBA players and knees. Pressure over time. You pressure your knees over time, and eventually, they don't work as well. For big guys, they lose three things once their knees start going: explosiveness (self-explanatory), quick hops (the ability to quickly jump up for a rebound or a block without setting their legs and bending their knees first) and auto-start (the ability to quickly start moving from a standing position).

Now, this isn't a career-ender. You can plod along for years afterward at 70-75 percent effectiveness. Kareem did it. Ewing did it. Shaq just did it the past four years. Hell, C-Webb limped around for two quality Kings teams in 2003 and 2004. It can be done. Just know that, once someone battles a severe knee issue with 1100 to 1200 games on the odometer, those three things (mentioned above) never really come back. It's almost like plastic surgery. Mess with your face once … maybe it looks the same. Go back again … now you're pushing it. Go a third time … now you're going to look like Cat Woman. And there's no going back. So if you're expecting KG to slap 24/13s and dominate games defensively, think again. I see him more like an aging middle linebacker -- think Ray Lewis -- who can still make big plays and knows where to be at all times, and yet, you're not crazy about seeing him drop into coverage to cover Knowshon Moreno one on one. Either way, it will be fascinating.

One silver lining for Celts fans: The Celtics can make the Finals with Garnett at 65-70 percent efficiency. Why? Because it's the deepest of the three Garnett/Celtics teams, and because the rest of the conference is that weak. That's absolutely true. For all the talk about the Big 3 in the East, 50 wins in the West doesn't even guarantee you a playoff spot anymore. Anything he gives them beyond a 14/7 and good defense is a bonus. A little frightening to say about someone in Year 1 of a three-year, $53 million extension. But true.

Andrew Bynum

I should be offended at the following, but it's just too frickin' funny. And it ALMOST has a ring of truth about it.

I am 65 percent certain that this exact conversation happened within the past four weeks.

(Kobe enters Phil Jackson's office. Brian Shaw is sitting to Phil's right.)

Phil: Kobe, thanks for stopping by.

Kobe: No problem. I got five minutes. Artest is taking me to Hollywood Boulevard; he wants to introduce me to the guys dressed up like Superman and Batman. He thinks they're the actual superheroes. I haven't had the heart to tell him they're homeless guys.

Phil: Well, don't tell him differently. Let him think that.

Kobe: I will.

Phil: Look, I really want to get Bynum more involved in our offense in November and December. It's a good thing, Kobe. Just trust me. We run everything through him for 42 minutes. You take over for the last six.

Kobe: C'mon, we did this last season. Then he got hurt, I took over and our team took off. Why go through the charade again?

Phil: Because you're still two titles behind MJ?

Kobe: That's your big motivational move with me now, huh?

Phil: Hey, he told me himself -- "Tell Kobe to call me when he gets to six."

Kobe (eyes narrowing): He said that?

Phil: Yup. He said he can't even take you seriously until you win two more.

Kobe: Really?

Phil: Yup. That's why we need Bynum right now. The Pechonkamappadosa tribe has a phrase for this called, "Kakaboomaka." It means, "To share the credit without giving up credit with those who matter." I just want to build his confidence up and save your legs. We put a ton of miles on those babies these past two years -- 208 games. This is good for you.

Kobe: Lemme think about it.

(Kobe leaves. Phil turns to Shaw.)

Phil: This is too easy.

The Lakers

Raise your hand if you're excited about Khlomar! (Happily raising hand.) Look, I don't have much ammo for the teams I hate right now. The Colts have been ruined for me; Peyton Manning has become such a monolith of clutchness that I can't even toss grenades at him; if anything, I respect the hell out of him. The Yankees are pulling for each other, slamming shaving pies into faces and looking unbeatable; even worse, it's the kind of likable, quirky (albeit, expensive) team that the Red Sox once had before they dumped their front office, ignored human intuition, decided that "business-like" was better than "personable," and used complicated statistical engines to assemble their 2009 roster. (Wait, we didn't do that? It just seemed like it. Sorry.) So really, hating the hateable Lakers is all I have left. Gotta love that honesty.

And you know what else? It's fun to have teams that you hate. Amen--which means "I agree." I hate Sasha Vujacic's hair. Old or new cut? I hate the fact women like Luke Walton. They do, you know. I hate their uniforms. Whaaa? Watch it, Leprechaun Boy. I hate when Pau Gasol gets excited and does that thing where he barks with his hands at his sides as his ugly beard drips sweat over everyone. I hate not being able to hate Derek Fisher. You know that's right! I love being able to hate Kobe, who has brought me more hateable joy than anyone else this decade. (But damn, is that guy good. I do respect him.) And I wish we played D like the Celtics. There, I said something nice too. I hate Laker fans who show up for Clipper games and only start making noise when the Lakers go up double-digits. I hate the fact D.J. Mbenga has a publicist. I could go on and on.

I would hope that Lakers fans are OK with this. I would hope they hate the Celtics just as much, for reasons that are just as personal to them. Oh, we do. That's what makes the rivalry great -- we hate them, they hate us, and somehow, the hatred is deepening, in a good way. After all, it's just sports. I don't REALLY hate anyone. (Well, except for Vujacic. If he was crossing the street on a crosswalk, I'd like to think that I wouldn't run him over, but I would definitely glance around to see how many people were looking before I made a final decision.) So that's what makes me so happy that the Lakers added not just the black sheep Kardashian sister, but …

Ron Artest

… the looniest player in the history of the league! As they're defending a title! And even better, every Laker fan thinks he's an upgrade over Trevor Ariza! Really? That's what you think? You really think that? Bill, we'll just have to agree to disagree on this. Are you perhaps just worried that we now have someone capable of guarding Pierce or might just be as dirty--I mean tough--as your Celtics. It remains to be seen how it will all shake out, but Ron-Ron potentially gives the Lakers a two-way weapon Ariza just isn't right now. TA is younger and quicker, but not remotely as strong or as polished of an offensive player. Crap, I wish we had 'em both. Any chance we could trade Sasha to Houston to get Ariza back?


Tim Duncan

Healthy, happy, rested, in shape. He's already the greatest power forward ever. He already has four rings. But you know what he doesn't have? When he's 60 years old, or 70, or 75, or whatever, and one of his grandkids says, "Grandpa, what was the best team you ever played on?" … he doesn't have an answer. He never played for a kick-ass, take-no-prisoners, dominant team. Kareem had the '87 Lakers and '71 Bucks. Magic had the '87 Lakers. Wilt had the '67 Sixers and '72 Lakers. Bird had the '86 Celtics. Shaq and Kobe had the '01 Lakers (playoff edition). West had the '72 Lakers. Oscar had the '71 Bucks. Moses had the '83 Sixers. Duncan has nothing. He had his shot with Robinson. NOBODY could match up with those two when they were clicking. But you saw what happened when they ran into the '01 Lakers playoff buzzsaw--swept with two 30+ point losses to finish the series.

Now, you could argue that the league is too diluted at this point. (And maybe it is. The '01 Lakers were our last kick-ass team.) Or, you could argue that Duncan never had a season in which everything fell into place. In my basketball book (coming Tuesday!!!), I wrote a chapter about the specific set of dynamics that separate championship teams from memorable championship teams. It's complicated and I won't spoil it here. Just know the 2009-10 Spurs qualify for "memorable" status. They have the talent, they have the "Eff You" edge (a term I explain in the book), and they have something that Gregg Popovich likes to call "appropriate fear." Here's how he explained that phrase in 2005:

It gets more difficult after a win to come back and understand how that subconscious sort of complacency can set in. You can't allow that to happen. You have to keep an appropriate fear of your opponent so that complacency will dissipate as soon as possible.

This particular Spurs team has the right level of appropriate fear: fear of aging and complacency coupled with an appreciation for how fast things can fall apart (thanks to Manu's ankle the past two seasons), and beyond that, the reality that their best player might only have one great season left in him. I am a Spurs junkie. I love reading about them. I love the way they put their rosters together and value chemistry so deeply. I love the way they interact during games (as I've written many times). I just get a kick out of them. And the truth is, this might be their last chance for a dominant season with Tim Duncan leading the way. They've added some nice pieces, but I think if everyone's healthy, they just don't have enough to keep up with LA. Who guards Pau--Duncan? So, you leave the 6-9 McDyess on Bynum? Good luck. Pick your poison. And I didn't even mention what Kobe's going to do without former nemesis Bowen in the Spurs mix. I say bring it on.

I think it happens. If only because great basketball players have a habit of somehow finding that one great team. They are my pick to win in 2010. Convincingly. Incidentally, Bill picked the Cavs to win last year. I'm sticking with my pick: Lakers over Celtics in six.